The Modelling Workshop will focus on introducing key modelling approaches, developing relevant case study models, and laying the foundation for a partnership-wide modelling paper.
Objectives
- Introduce modelling approaches for studying nexus systems
- Develop modelling projects that are relevant for the case studies and integration/synthesis
- Develop an outline for a partnership-wide modelling paper
Structure
During the biannual FCB-nexus partnership meeting in Costa Rica the modelling workshop consists of two sessions. The first session will focus on discussing the nexus system to be modelled in the 5 different case studies. The second session will focus on a joined overview and potential model for the FCB nexus based on the 5 cases. To kick start the workshop we will provide preparatory material.
Pre-workshop videos and readings
The videos and presentations, listed below, are intended to cover the following:
- What is a model?
- Examples of ecological models
- Conceptual models and causal loop diagrams
- Explanation of the exercises to work on at the workshop
Video – Rob Alkemade presenting GLOBIO (click to expand)
PDF – Explaining Models (click to expand)
This document outlines a modelling workshop focused on building models to understand complex systems. It explains what a model is, how to construct one (defining the system, choosing methods, and considering data), and stresses the importance of critical evaluation, including sensitivity and uncertainty analyses. The workshop aims to develop models for specific case studies, comparing approaches and integrating findings into comprehensive models for scenario analysis, not prediction.
Other examples
This is an interdisciplinary modelling case study from a project William was involved with in Kenya. This case study combines a participatory approach with modelling to explore trade-offs in coastal management.
Paper (click to expand)
Video (click to expand)
Modeling ecosystem services with InVEST – Ecosystem Services: a Method for Sustainable Development (5m41s)
Video on Youtube (click to expand)
Rob Dunford-Brown speaks on Modelling (From MAIA Webinar III: Spatial modelling for compiling Ecosystem Services biophysical accounts) (16m31s)
Video via google drive (click to expand)
Workshop in Costa Rica
The exercise to be worked on is:
For each cases study define the following steps
- What is the main objective of the case study and what question will or can be addressed with modelling: Formulate the question in the form of: How can X be improved by changing conditions a,b,c, etc. or What are the reasons a,b,c etc for the decline of X?
- Develop a conceptual model of the system with the X as the main focal component, in the context of the Food, Climate, Biodiversity nexus
- Fill in parts of the conceptual model:
- Look for existing models that can potentially be used to address the question?
- If a model exists: Adapt or expand this model to fit for purpose
- If the model does not exist:
- Choose the appropriate modelling method (expert based, correlative, process based)
- Define relationships as from the conceptual model into mathematical form
- Explore the data required to parameterize these relationships
- Estimate and verify these relationships
- Combine those into a model
- (Test the model and apply for the question of step 1) outside the scope of the workshop
Agenda
Session 1
Date: Tuesday, February 11 | Time: 14:45 – 17:00
| Time (mins) | Activity | Moderator(s) |
|---|---|---|
| 15 | Introduction on exercise and Q&A | Rob Alkemade, Solen Le Clec’h |
| 70 | Group (mixed group across case studies)- Conceptual model or causal diagram of the nexus in one of the cases. This relates to step 2. First discuss briefly the cases and select one (sub-) case with a clear question, and jointly draw the causal diagram | William Cheung, Rashid Sumaila, Solen Le Clec’h, and Rob Alkemade |
| 40 | Plenary- presentation (10 min) of the conceptual model / causal diagram of each case | Rob Alkemade (keep time all day) |
| Total: 2h 5 min |
Session 2
Date: Thursday, February 13 | Time: 10:45 – 12:00
| Time (mins) | Activity | Moderator(s) |
|---|---|---|
| 5 | Recap | Solen Le Clec’h |
| 50 | Group discussion (mixed group across case studies) on filling the conceptual models and look for similarities and differences between the conceptual models of the FCB nexus to come to an integration towards a possible FCB-nexus model | William Cheung, Rashid Sumaila, Solen Le Clec’h, and Rob Alkemade |
| 20 | Plenary discussion on further steps needed and possible model formulations and a possible joined paper | Solen Le Clec’h |
| Total: 1h 15 min |
