Palacios-Abrantes, J., Santos, B. S., Frölicher, T. L., Reygondeau, G., Sumaila, U., Wabnitz, C. C. C., & Cheung, W. W. L. (2025). Climate change drives shifts in straddling fish stocks in the world’s ocean. Science Advances, 11(31). https://doi.org/10.1126/sciadv.adq5976
A new study led by Solving-FCB researchers reveals that climate change is causing significant shifts in the location of fish stocks that straddle national and international waters. The paper, published in Science Advances, warns that these movements could lead to increased conflicts over fishing rights and threaten the livelihoods of coastal communities.
The research, headed by lead author Juliano Palacios-Abrantes, found that hundreds of “straddling” fish stocks: populations that move between nations’ Exclusive Economic Zones (EEZs) and the high seas, are shifting their locations due to changing ocean conditions. By 2050, more than half of these stocks are projected to have moved, with a majority shifting further into the high seas. This study exemplifies the Solving-FCB project’s mission by directly addressing how climate change impacts marine ecosystems (Biodiversity) and the fisheries they support (Food).
“Climate change is creating a new layer of complexity for fisheries management,” said Project PI Dr. William Cheung. “As fish move to find cooler waters, they are crossing historical and political boundaries, which existing international agreements are not always equipped to handle.”
The study identified 347 straddling stocks, encompassing 67 species, that are on the move. Highly migratory species like tuna are among those projected to shift across the management areas of different Regional Fisheries Management Organizations (RFMOs).
This redistribution of marine life poses a serious challenge to international cooperation. As valuable fish stocks move out of a nation’s EEZ and into the high seas, it can create economic hardship for coastal states that depend on fishing revenue. The study highlights that such shifts are likely to disproportionately affect island and coastal nations.
“These findings underscore the urgent need for revised governance frameworks,” stated Sumaila. “We need adaptive and equitable management strategies to prevent overexploitation and ensure that the benefits from these resources are shared fairly.”
The research suggests that even under low-emission scenarios, significant shifts are unavoidable. The paper calls for greater cooperation between countries and RFMOs to manage these shared resources sustainably.
